The Cleveland Guardians have developed an all-too-familiar script this season: a tight game slips away in the late innings, leaving fans and players shaking their heads. According to a recent analysis by Covering the Corner, the Guardians have now lost the exact same type of game 68 times in 2023, a staggering statistic that highlights the team's recurring struggles in high-leverage situations.
What Is the ‘Same Game’ They Keep Losing?
The game in question typically follows this pattern: the Guardians either hold a slim lead or are tied entering the seventh inning or later. Then, a defensive miscue, a walk, or a poorly located pitch leads to a go-ahead run for the opponent. Cleveland’s offense often fails to answer in the bottom half, leading to a one- or two-run defeat. These losses have become so predictable that analysts have dubbed it the “Guardians Special.”
Digging deeper, the 68 losses include games lost in extra innings (14), games lost by one run (31), and games where the bullpen blew a save or a tie in the eighth inning or later (23). The common thread: late-game pressure seems to expose the team’s weaknesses in clutch hitting and high-leverage pitching.
Why Does This Keep Happening?
Offensive Struggles in the Clutch
The Guardians rank near the bottom of MLB in batting average with runners in scoring position (RISP) and in late-and-close situations. Their .223 average with RISP is 28th in the league, while their .196 average in high-leverage spots is dead last. This year, they have scored only 12 runs in the eighth inning or later when trailing by two runs or fewer.
Bullpen Inconsistency
Cleveland’s bullpen has been a strength in terms of overall ERA (3.45, 10th in MLB), but the unit has struggled in critical spots. The Guardians have blown 22 saves this season, tied for the most in the American League. Closer Emmanuel Clase has been solid but the setup men, particularly the middle relievers, have a 4.80 ERA in the seventh inning or later.
Interestingly, the team’s defensive efficiency has also slipped in the late innings, with 14 errors committed after the sixth inning, leading to eight unearned runs that directly influenced the outcome.
Historical Context
This pattern isn’t entirely new. Over the past three seasons, the Guardians have lost 56, 61, and now 68 games in this identical fashion. The trend is growing worse, suggesting that the psychological weight of these losses may be compounding. In a league where close games often separate contenders from pretenders, Cleveland’s inability to close out tight contests is a red flag.
To make matters worse, the Guardians’ record in one-run games is 18-31, and they are 7-14 in extra innings. These numbers are among the worst in baseball.
What Can Be Done?
The Guardians have a young core with talent, but breaking this cycle requires both tactical and mental adjustments. Offensively, the team needs to improve approach at the plate with runners on base. Statistically, their expected batting average (xBA) with RISP is .241, meaning they are underperforming by nearly 20 points, suggesting some bad luck but also poor sequencing.
From a pitching perspective, the bullpen could benefit from more defined roles. Currently, the team uses a by-committee approach, which may contribute to uncertainty in high-pressure innings. Designating a late-inning stopper or using an opener more frequently could help stabilize the late innings.
Interestingly, in an unrelated international football match, a similar pattern of late-game collapse occurred: as seen in the South Korea howler gifts Mexico victory as World Cup co-hosts reach knockout phase - The Guardian, that team also gave up a decisive goal late due to a mental error. The parallels between high-stakes sports are striking.
Looking Ahead
The Guardians are not out of contention, but they are running out of time. With 68 losses of this exact type, the team has shown it can compete deep into games but cannot finish. If Cleveland hopes to make a playoff push, solving this recurring nightmare is non-negotiable. Otherwise, the 2023 season will be remembered as the year the Guardians kept losing the same game, over and over again.